Wednesday, August 21, 2013

EUR/USD (21Aug) planned trade









I have placed another stop order trade for EUR/USD with the order to open at the break of the low as shown on daily chart. The price seems to be rejecting the recent top and seeing a long pin bar reversal, it might show that the currency might be on going on a downward direction..  Based on my
risk management guideline, my risk set for the trade is 2.6%

Pin bar Fakey (0.5 weightage)
Showing rejection on resistance (0.1 weightage)
Carry interest negative (-0.07 weightage)
Total risk = 2.6% (0.53 weightage)

This gives me a total of about 2 mini lot position, taking the leverage to around 2X.. The stop set is 108 with the limit set for the 2 position 160 (first support) and 362 (Second Support). I am adopting a single stop multi exit strategy because I think there's more room for downside movement and even if my deduction turns out to be wrong, I will have at least one profitable position.

The stop for my second position will be adjusted accordingly once the first Target profit is hit.. It will     probably be set at the resistance of the most recent trading areas...


     This trade will automatically expire should it be not opened by next day.


Tuesday, August 20, 2013

AUD/USD Aug 20 2nd trade


I have closed the earlier trade and opened a "long" position on AUD/USD.. This is on speculation that it will be going in range but since this might be a counter trend trade in nature, i have minimize the risk as follow :

Pin Bar reversal (0.3 weightage 1.5%)
Stop less than 35 (-0.1 weightage -0.5%)
Trading on pivot point ( 0.2 weightage 1%)
 MArket order (-0.05 weightage -0.25%)

Risk : 1.75%

I have set my exit at the other pivot point which is the resistance as shown above. The R:R is about 5 and my stop is 34 pips below the support.!





My trade was stopped out.. I am very tempted to open another random poistion, with hope that I can recoup but I have constantly myself to follow the plan and stay calm... I reminded myself not just to think of the "money" but rather, I should focus on the amount i will lose (Risk) and the process. 

Monday, August 19, 2013

An update on trading

Its been very long since I last blogged and when I looked on my past posts, it seems that I did not change much or either improve in my trading ways.. I am still trading impulsively, with making money set as my first goal instead of focusing on trading... This usually leads to poor decisions like doubling down, taking excessive risk and thinking price will revert back to me cost... its just a matter of time.. My record has proven me otherwise many times but still, greed prevented me from seeing the clear picture... I have lost another 10% of my account in a very reckless manner.

I promise myself this will be the last time.... I must start to focus trading correctly rather than expecting things from market... In the past, I have been always trading in a panic manner... taking large leverage, checking prices every min and when the price move against me, I will open another position to average down.. My heart will move very fast and I will stare at the price every second hoping it will go in my direction and when it indeed goes in my direction, I will fear my profit creeping away so sometimes I will just close immediately...  I am trading in a very difficult and stressed manner which makes trading additionally difficult.

I want to take a different approach for trading.. A more relaxed, methodical and stress free approach. I will be focusing more on the risk rather than the amount of money I can make.. Secondly, rather than trading on low time frame chart, I will trade higher time frame (4hours, daily and weekly).. Lastly, I will only trade when I have the clear signal.. I will remind myself to be patient and in any case if I lose my trade, the key will be capital preservation rather than recouping!..

It is a long journey and I really hope I can make it one day.

Trading 19 Aug 13 (AUD/USD)

I am currently experimenting with a new money management system.. The system might be still bias in nature as it needs my subjective assessment on the chart therefore as much as possible, I will make my rules and guidelines strict so that it will be easy to adhere.

Below is the daily chart of the AUD/USD.. My system will be mainly based on higher time frame chart (daily and 4 hour)... Basically I am giving a point system to the cues I get from the chart before deciding on the risk to take... My max risk [no matter how confident I am] per position will be 5%...

I have started off with an ac of 7800 USD thus my max risk will be 390 USD. Based on the chart, theres some cue i taken...

 a) price surge up over the past few sessions and the price broke the recent high but reversed strongly to the low.. [pin bar fakey - weightage 0.5 [2.5%]

b) the trend of the currency is downwards and  my trade is opened in accordance to trend. 0.15 [0.75%]

c)  I have used market order so seeing this as a bad entry, I want to reduce my risk... weightage -0.05 [ -0.25%]

Total Risk taken : 3%

Since the currency is trending downwards, I have set my limit to 2X of my risk (160 pips target).. I have checked against the chart and the limit is still some distance away from the reversal point (0.88) which is a possible "target"